Reset likelihood in the next 72 hours
-- --% likelihood
- Model confidence
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- Official status
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Timing assessment
Codex usage signal monitor
Codex Reset Radar
DeepSeek analysisA cautious estimate built from recent public, non-reply posts by the monitored account. Evidence, counter-signals, and uncertainty stay visible so speculation is never presented as fact.
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Recent 7 assessments
Recent 7 assessments
Model summary
Model summary
Supporting signals
Supporting signals
Opposing signals
Opposing signals
Source-linked reasoning
Source-linked reasoning
Practical takeaway
Practical takeaway
Uncertainties
How this radar works
Codex Reset Radar is an explainable public-signal monitor, not an oracle. Every 15 minutes, its Cloudflare Worker incrementally collects the monitored account's posts from the latest three days and its own replies created after reply collection was enabled. Older replies and other accounts' posts are excluded; no semantic keyword filter is applied.
The language model evaluates a rolling 72-hour horizon. It returns an overall probability and three consecutive 24-hour windows, along with evidence on both sides, uncertainty notes, and a confidence score. Probability describes the estimated chance of the event; confidence describes how adequate and consistent the available evidence appears.
Time information has a stricter boundary. A source-stated time is accepted only when the monitored account states it directly. It can remain visible beyond the forecast horizon. A model estimate is limited to the next 72 hours, shown as a window rather than a false exact promise, and omitted when the evidence is too weak.
Collection does not automatically trigger model analysis. A fresh assessment is generated only when the input content, edit or deletion state, an active reset-time event, or the prompt version changes. If collection or inference fails, the interface preserves the last successful result and labels it as degraded or stale.
Important limitations
The monitored account is a useful signal source, not an official OpenAI status channel. Reset decisions can happen without advance public discussion, and model interpretation can be wrong. Verify actual allowance and reset behavior in the official product before making a consequential decision.
FAQ
Is Codex Reset Radar an official OpenAI service?
No. It is an independent signal monitor. A stated time means that the monitored source explicitly mentioned or confirmed a time; it still does not make that time an OpenAI announcement. Always verify important usage decisions in official Codex and OpenAI account surfaces.
Why show both a source-stated time and a model estimate?
They answer different questions. A source-stated time is extracted from an attributable post. A model estimate is a cautious inference from recent conversations and can be unavailable when the evidence is weak. The interface never presents an estimate as a quoted fact.
How often does the radar update?
The collector runs incrementally every 15 minutes. DeepSeek runs only when input post content, edit or deletion state, an active explicit-time event, or the prompt version changes, preventing unchanged inputs from creating artificial probability movement.